From "Winner Takes All" to a More Open Playing Field

Six months ago, we released Crossing the Chasm on TikTok Shop, a deep dive into how Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) was distributed among sellers. Back then, TikTok Shop operated as a "Winner Takes All" marketplace, where the top 5% of sellers dominated, while those below the 20% mark barely moved the needle. Breaking into the top 10% required months of effort, pushing past a sea of undifferentiated competitors before real momentum kicked in.

That report sparked a lot of conversation—and now, six months later, we’re back with fresh insights. The landscape is shifting, and the sales curve is flattening in a way that signals huge opportunities for a wider range of brands.

A More Even Playing Field: What’s Changing?

We revisited our original GMV dataset, updating each seller’s performance and overlaying a new fitted curve on our chart. The results? A clear shift: the extreme concentration of sales among top-tier sellers is easing.

While top sellers still have an advantage, mid-sized brands (ranked 10-30%) are now capturing a significantly larger share of revenue. This means that new and growing brands can start generating meaningful sales faster—and reach efficiency and acceleration much earlier in their journey.

What’s Driving This Shift?

Several key trends are reshaping TikTok Shop’s sales distribution:

• TikTok Is Moving Away from "King-Making"
  For much of 2024, TikTok turbocharged a handful of breakout sellers, giving them massive visibility, priority access to affiliates, and even ad credits. But that era appears to be winding down. As TikTok scales back its direct intervention, some of its former power players are seeing their dominance fade.
• A More Even Playing Field for Ads & Growth Strategies
  With less free exposure going to select sellers, paid growth strategies are becoming the great equalizer. Brands of all sizes are now leveraging paid ads, data-driven marketing, and performance-based scaling tactics to carve out their share of the market.
• TikTok Shop is Maturing
  The platform is shifting from an unpredictable, high-risk growth channel into a stable, scalable ecommerce engine. The extreme volatility that once defined TikTok Shop is evolving into a structured environment where brands can execute with more predictability.

What This Means for Brands Right Now

The Bottom Line

TikTok Shop is evolving fast, and the opportunity is bigger than ever. The extreme concentration of sales at the top is giving way to a more dynamic and competitive ecosystem—one where more brands can win. For those ready to commit to a strategic, long-term approach, TikTok Shop remains one of the most exciting frontiers in ecommerce today.